Climate Fabricated Results - Evidence
16/12/09 14:59 Filed in: Personal
This CRU leaked archive makes interesting reading.
Take this email from Tom Wigley from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, a man previously Director of the Climate Research Unit.
On the 4th May he emails Phil Jones (of the Climate Research Unit - University of East Anglia) with the following subject.
"[Fwd: CCNet Xtra: Climate Science Fraud at Albany University?]-FROM TOM W "
The messages reads as follows.
Phil,
Do you know where this stands? The key things from the Peiser items are ...
"Wang had been claiming the existence of such exonerating documents for nearly a year, but he has not been able to produce them. Additionally, there was a report published in 1991 (with a second version in 1997) explicitly stating that no such documents exist. Moreover, the report was published as part of the Department of Energy Carbon Dioxide
Research Program, and Wang was the Chief Scientist of that program."
and
"Wang had a co-worker in Britain. In Britain, the Freedom of Information Act requires that data from publicly-funded research be made available. I was able to get the data by requiring Wang's co-worker to release it, under British law. It was only then that I was able to confirm that Wang had committed fraud."
You are the co-worker, so you must have done something like provide Keenan with the DOE report that shows that there are no station records for 49 of the 84 stations. I presume Keenan therefore thinks that it was not possible to select stations on the basis of ...
"... station histories: selected stations have relatively few, if any, changes in instrumentation, location, or observation times" [THIS IS ITEM "X"]
Of course, if the only stations used were ones from the 35 stations that *did* have station histories, then all could be OK. However, if some of the stations used were from the remaining 49, then the above selection method could not have been applied (but see below) -- unless there are other "hard copy" station history data not in the DOE report (but in China) that were used. From what Wang has said, if what he says is true, the second possibility appears to be the case.
What is the answer here?
The next puzzle is why Wei-Chyung didn't make the hard copy information available. Either it does not exist, or he thought it was too much trouble to access and copy. My guess is that it does not exist -- if it did then why was it not in the DOE report? In support of this, it seems that there are other papers from 1991 and 1997 that show that the data do not exist. What are these papers? Do they really show this?
Now my views. (1) I have always thought W-C W was a rather sloppy scientist. I therefore would not be surprised if he screwed up here. But ITEM X is in both the W-C W and Jones et al. papers -- so where does it come from first? Were you taking W-C W on trust?
(2) It also seems to me that the University at Albany has screwed up. To accept a complaint from Keenan and not refer directly to the complaint and the complainant in its report really is asking for trouble.
(3) At the very start it seems this could have been easily dispatched. ITEM X really should have been ...
"Where possible, stations were chosen on the basis of station histories and/or local knowledge: selected stations have relatively few, if any, changes in instrumentation, location, or observation times"
Of course the real get out is the final "or". A station could be selected if either it had relatively few "changes in instrumentation" OR "changes in location" OR "changes in observation times". Not all three, simply any one of the three. One could argue about the science here -- it would be better to have all three -- but this is not what the statement says.
Why, why, why did you and W-C W not simply say this right at the start?
Perhaps it's not too late?
-----
I realise that Keenan is just a trouble maker and out to waste time, so I apologize for continuing to waste your time on this, Phil. However, I *am* concerned because all this happened under my watch as Director of CRU and, although this is unlikely, the buck eventually should stop with me.
Best wishes,
Tom
P.S. I am copying this to Ben. Seeing other peoples' troubles might make him happier about his own parallel experiences.
Take this email from Tom Wigley from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, a man previously Director of the Climate Research Unit.
On the 4th May he emails Phil Jones (of the Climate Research Unit - University of East Anglia) with the following subject.
"[Fwd: CCNet Xtra: Climate Science Fraud at Albany University?]-FROM TOM W "
The messages reads as follows.
Phil,
Do you know where this stands? The key things from the Peiser items are ...
"Wang had been claiming the existence of such exonerating documents for nearly a year, but he has not been able to produce them. Additionally, there was a report published in 1991 (with a second version in 1997) explicitly stating that no such documents exist. Moreover, the report was published as part of the Department of Energy Carbon Dioxide
Research Program, and Wang was the Chief Scientist of that program."
and
"Wang had a co-worker in Britain. In Britain, the Freedom of Information Act requires that data from publicly-funded research be made available. I was able to get the data by requiring Wang's co-worker to release it, under British law. It was only then that I was able to confirm that Wang had committed fraud."
You are the co-worker, so you must have done something like provide Keenan with the DOE report that shows that there are no station records for 49 of the 84 stations. I presume Keenan therefore thinks that it was not possible to select stations on the basis of ...
"... station histories: selected stations have relatively few, if any, changes in instrumentation, location, or observation times" [THIS IS ITEM "X"]
Of course, if the only stations used were ones from the 35 stations that *did* have station histories, then all could be OK. However, if some of the stations used were from the remaining 49, then the above selection method could not have been applied (but see below) -- unless there are other "hard copy" station history data not in the DOE report (but in China) that were used. From what Wang has said, if what he says is true, the second possibility appears to be the case.
What is the answer here?
The next puzzle is why Wei-Chyung didn't make the hard copy information available. Either it does not exist, or he thought it was too much trouble to access and copy. My guess is that it does not exist -- if it did then why was it not in the DOE report? In support of this, it seems that there are other papers from 1991 and 1997 that show that the data do not exist. What are these papers? Do they really show this?
Now my views. (1) I have always thought W-C W was a rather sloppy scientist. I therefore would not be surprised if he screwed up here. But ITEM X is in both the W-C W and Jones et al. papers -- so where does it come from first? Were you taking W-C W on trust?
(2) It also seems to me that the University at Albany has screwed up. To accept a complaint from Keenan and not refer directly to the complaint and the complainant in its report really is asking for trouble.
(3) At the very start it seems this could have been easily dispatched. ITEM X really should have been ...
"Where possible, stations were chosen on the basis of station histories and/or local knowledge: selected stations have relatively few, if any, changes in instrumentation, location, or observation times"
Of course the real get out is the final "or". A station could be selected if either it had relatively few "changes in instrumentation" OR "changes in location" OR "changes in observation times". Not all three, simply any one of the three. One could argue about the science here -- it would be better to have all three -- but this is not what the statement says.
Why, why, why did you and W-C W not simply say this right at the start?
Perhaps it's not too late?
-----
I realise that Keenan is just a trouble maker and out to waste time, so I apologize for continuing to waste your time on this, Phil. However, I *am* concerned because all this happened under my watch as Director of CRU and, although this is unlikely, the buck eventually should stop with me.
Best wishes,
Tom
P.S. I am copying this to Ben. Seeing other peoples' troubles might make him happier about his own parallel experiences.