I had the immense please of being able to talk to an eminent scientist over the weekend. Now what the person had to say was fascinating and whilst that person was happy for me to blog it; that person didn’t want to be identified. Why? Well, because that person had serious concerns that doing so would affect Government funding over the following years.

I think what it was encouraging to hear was that the “scientific method” was alive, well and living (if in hiding) in the modern University.

For a giggle we looked at the Carbon Trust website, at it’s opening gambit.

The basic mechanics of climate change are well understood (1); the world is warming (2), much of the warming is due to human emissions of greenhouse gases (3), and the changes are set to accelerate in the future (4), bringing many and varied impacts around the world. (5)

1. The mechanics of climate change are NOT well understood. You want an example; how accurate are weather predictions for the next two weeks? 100% accurate? Less? Usually, less than 33% accurate. Which doesn’t bode well considering this is the science behind out ‘understanding’ of climate change.
2. As it has been doing for the last 50,000-100,000 years in fact. Not much of a surprise, as we are seeing the end of an ice age.
3. Not proven, this is only a theory. Plus, just how much IS “much”? I mean that’s a pretty vague statement for a document that pro-ports to be the de-facto truth on the matter.
4. Unproved and highly speculative at best, and absolutely outrageous and politically motivated statement of rhetoric at worse. So far, extreme weather changes have failed to meet computer generated models. But as these are based around “trend analysis” that’s not much of a surprise.
5. Well, ANY change will bring about an “impact”. But whether or not this is a good or bad impact has yet to be calculated. For example, the Sahara desert is in retreat due to the increase of water vapour coming from the Atlantic and Mediterranean sea. Once again Egypt could be a highly fertile land... the same could be said for other such areas.

The “FACT” is that there are NO FACTS. All the current estimations, models are estimates are just that... guesses. In some cases highly educated guesses; but no matter how you try and sell a model of something; it’s only a model. It is NOT fact.

Should we stop pumping TOXIC gases (sulphur dioxide etc) into the atmosphere? Damn right we should. But that makes more sense to me that worrying about the POSSIBLE effects of a THEORY based upon an ASSUMPTION that flies to the contrary of previous climatic events.

To me, CO2 looks more like taxation and control that any real measure of protecting the environment.

Oh... and just so we are clear on what makes up our atmosphere.

According to NASA, our atmosphere is made up of;

• 78.085% Nitrogen
• 20.946% Oxygen
• 0.9340% Argon
• 0.0383% Carbon Dioxide
• etc etc

0.0383% Carbon Dioxide is NOT a typo, that’s how little CO2 there is in our atmosphere.

Now I heard speculation on some HALF ARSED science program that we can see a perfect example of a greenhouse gas planet in action by looking at Venus.

Now excusing the fact that Venus is considerably closer to the sun, its atmosphere is made up of;

• 96.5% Carbon Dioxide
• 3.5% Nitrogen
• Then some Sulfur Dioxide, Argon, Water vapour, carbon monoxide... all in the parts per million level.

So for Earth to turn into a run away greenhouse effect, are we saying that nearly all the nitrogen, all the oxygen and all the Argon would need to convert to carbon dioxide. Like we’d be bothered about the temperature at this point!

So of the sources of this 0.0383%

• 57% Surface Ocean (Natural)
• 38% Respiration (Natural)
• 5% Fossil fuels / Cement / Deforestation / Changing Land Use

So MANS effect on Carbon Dioxide is 5% of the 0.0383% total.

Incidentally, so you don’t plan on holding your breath... the following a carbon sinks;

• 60% Ocean absorption
• 40% Photosynthesis

Of course... water vapour is a considerably more worrying greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide would ever be. But human activity doesn’t really cause much of that... so it can’t be taxed

Tags: carbon trust, carbon dioxide, carbon, climate, sources, natural, man made